DAILY NEWSLETTER

2014年5月8日

Daily Newsletter // 2014/5/8

德拉吉会否采取具体行动来挑战强势欧元(1.3911，0.0024，0.17%)

英国央行和欧洲央行将于今天释放政策决定。与市场预期不同，英国央行非常有望维持银行利率在历史低位0.50%不变。我们认为优异的经济数据、良好的PMI以及劳动力市场的重大改善将依然使投注与早于计划的英国政策正常化保持一致，继而推高英镑(1.6953，0.001，0.06%)。若英国央行维持政策不变，则其应该会成为今天外汇市场上的无关事件，这表明英镑兑美元(1.6953，0.001，0.06%)应该会继续其技术面交易。然而，由于法兰克福的局势略显复杂，欧元(1.3911，0.0024，0.17%)兑英镑(1.6953，0.001，0.06%)应该会由欧元(1.3911，0.0024，0.17%)动向所主导。那么，欧洲央行又会如何应对大幅走强的欧元(1.3911，0.0024，0.17%)呢？...

EURUSD(1.3911，0.0024，0.17%)	GBPUSD(1.6953，0.001，0.06%)	USDJPY(101.869，-0.095，-0.09%)	USDCHF(0.8762，-0.0023，-0.26%)
Resistance and Support:

1.4502	1.7332	103.02	0.8953
1.4247	1.7043	102.8	0.8862
1.3967	1.6996	102.19	0.8784
1.3938	1.696	101.81	0.8745
1.3906	1.692	101.33	0.8721
1.3775	1.6823	101.2	0.8699
1.3673	1.6763	100.76	0.8568
S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot

Quick access to our 5 previous newsletters:

TIME (GMT)	EVENT	VALUE NAME	CONS.
Today's Economic Calendar

23:01	RICS Residential Market Survey	House Prices	57.5
00:00	QV Nationwide Residential Property Values
01:30	Labour Force	Aggregate Hours Worked (Net Chg)
		Part time Employment (Seasonally Adj.)
		Participation Rate (Seasonally Adj.)	64.7
		Full time Employment (Seasonally Adj.)
		Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj)	5.9
		Employment (Seasonally Adj)	9000
02:00	Imported Vehicle Sales
03:00	Economic Trends, including household loans, money supply index Lf	Household Loans, KRW
03:00	Money Supply index L
05:00	Gold & Foreign Exchange Reserves
05:45	Quarterly Consumer Sentiment Index	Consumer Sentiment Index	3
06:00	Foreign trade
06:00	Industrial Production Index	Construction Output Pct Chg MoM
		Manufacturing Output Pct Change MoM
		Industrial Output (Adjusted) YoY
		Industrial Output (Adjusted) MoM	0.2
		Industrial Output Pct Chg YoY
06:30	Bank Indonesia Board of Governors meeting & decision	Current BI Rate
06:30	Bank Indonesia Board of Governors meeting & decision	Net Chg in Bps
07:00	Industrial Production	IPI, Y/Y
07:00	Industrial Production Index	Indus Production, Y/Y
07:00	Preliminary Industrial Production	Indus Output, M/M
07:00	Preliminary Industrial Production	Indus Output, Y/Y
07:00	Preliminary External Trade	Trade Balance, EUR
07:15	CPI	Consumer Price Index MoM
07:15	CPI	Consumer Price Index YoY	0.1
07:30	CPI	Inflation Rate
08:00	Philippine Monetary Policy meeting & decision	Borrowing Rate
		Lending Rate
		Overall Net Change (Bps)
08:00	Norges Bank monetary policy decision	Norges Bank Rate	1.5
08:00	Industrial Production Index	Manufacturing Output, Y/Y
		Manufacturing Output, M/M
		Manufacturing Output, 3-Month Change
08:15	Foreign Exchange Reserves	Reserves, USD
10:00	Manufacturing: Production & Sales
08:30	Mortgage and landlord possession statistics
09:00	International Reserves, end of month	Reserves, USD
09:00	Foreign Trade
09:00	Labour Force Survey	Unemployment Rate
09:00	External Trade (estimates)
10:00	National Institute Economic Review press conference
10:00	CPI	Yearly % Change
10:00	CPI	MoM % Change
10:00	Malaysia Monetary Policy Committee Meeting & Statement	Current Policy Rate
10:00	Malaysia Monetary Policy Committee Meeting & Statement	Current Bps Net Change
10:00	Industrial Production
11:00	BOE Announcement
11:00	UK interest rate decision	Bank Rate	0.5
11:45	EU interest rate announcement	MRO Rate
11:45	EU interest rate announcement	Direction of Action
11:45	ECB Announcement
12:00	CPI	CPI, M/M
12:15	Housing Starts	Housing Starts (Change Pct)
12:15	Housing Starts	Housing Starts
12:30	New Housing Price Index	Housing Price Index (Mom)
12:30	New Housing Price Index	Housing Price Index (YoY)
12:30	Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims	Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change
		Cont Jobless Claims (prior week)
		Cont Jobless Claims Net Chg (prior week)
		Weekly Jobless Claims	325
12:30	U.S. Weekly Export Sales	Wheat, In Metric Tons
		Soybeans, In Metric Tons
		Corn, In Metric Tons
13:00	PPI
13:00	CPI full month	Core MoM % Change (Adj)
13:00	CPI full month	MoM % Change (Adj)
13:45	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
14:00	DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer	DJ-BTMU Business Barometer
14:00	DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer	DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (52 Wk)
14:30	EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report	Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change)	71
14:30	EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report	Total Working Gas in Storage	1052
16:00	ICSC Chain Store Sales Trends
18:00	FRB St. Louis President Bullard remarks at Household Balance Sheet Research Symposium
20:30	Money Stock Measures
20:30	Foreign Central Bank Holdings
20:30	Federal Discount Window Borrowings

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